摘要
本文旨在全面概述非洲大湖地区预警机制的有效性。本文分析了卢旺达、南苏丹和刚果民主共和国东部等经历过不稳定大规模冲突的国家的冲突预警现状，旨在确定预警机制在预防非洲大湖地区冲突方面的有效性。研究结果表明，预警机制由于结构薄弱，在很大程度上未能发挥应有的作用，这解释了尽管全球采取了诸多干预措施，南苏丹和饱受战火蹂躏的刚果民主共和国东部等地的冲突依然持续存在。其失败的主要原因是现有预警机制与该地区持续不断的冲突性质不相适应，以及决策者即使在预警信号明显的情况下也不愿迅速采取行动。
关键词： 预警；冲突预防；非洲大湖区；内战；东非
Abstract
This paper seeks to provide a holistic overview of the effectiveness of early warning mechanisms in the African Great Lakes region. It analyzes the current state of conflict early warning in countries that have experienced erratic large-scale conflicts such as Rwanda, South Sudan, and the eastern region of D.R. Congo. The objective was to determine how effective has the early warning mechanism been in preventing conflicts within the African Great Lakes region. According to the research findings, early warning has to a considerable extent been ineffective due to its weak structures which explains the persistent conflicts such as those in South Sudan and the war-torn eastern D.R. Congo despite the numerous global interventions. The failure is largely attributed to the incompatibility of the existing early warning mechanisms to the region’s relentless nature of conflicts, and the reluctance by the policymakers to act swiftly even when the early warning signs are apparently clear.
Key words： Early warning; Conflict prevention; African Great Lakes; Civil wars, East Africa
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